Financial Analysis

Infosys stock Analysis - Outlook for FY25 Let us analyze the stock in two aspects.  Technical Analysis  Business News   Technical Analysis Infosys weekly chart tells us the below points. Stock is in the bottom of the channel. It is close to 200 EMA. MACD line is seen reversing.  RSI is approaching over sold region.  It is almost 500 points to the All Time High, Moving to OI analysis There is a strong support at 1500 and Put writing is seen getting added to 1400.  Business News for the last quarter Infosys To Receive Rs 6,329 Cr Tax Refund from IT Dept. Multi-year contract worth $300 million with Singapore’s shipping company Pacific International Lines (PIL) running until 2027. Asia Pacific businesses are sprucing up investments in generative AI (GenAI) and projected to nearly triple spending on this technology to USD 3.4 billion in 2024 across Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, India, and Singapore Interest rate cuts for this year will be there in t...

 As the most awaited meeting outcome came, whatever market is expecting, it delivered the same - Keeping the repo rates unchanged. Following are the key points which needs to be looked at, Repo rates unchanged Policy stance of "Withdrawal of accommodation" maintained.  Withdrawal of accommodation - Reducing the money supply in the system Target GDP growth rate - 7.1% Target Inflation - 4.5% What it means to the stock market let's discuss this in terms of each industry which are highly dependable. Banking - Even though all banks have posted good guidance, in order for their loan book to improve, we still have to wait for the inflation to further decline. Impact - Might see a consolidation phase for the upcoming quarter.  Consumption - As the inflation is still not under the target of the RBI, Consumption related companies have to still wait.  Impact -  Might see a consolidation phase for the upcoming quarter.

HDFC Bank is currently at a point of closing above the 200-DMA in the weekly time frame. It is also coinciding with the below two indicators. 1. MACD - Indicator line is crossing over.  2. RSI - It is near the oversold region. All these technical indicators are pointing towards an upside movement. On top of it, on 5th of April 2024, there will be an announcement from the RBI on the rate cuts, but the expectation is that they hold on to the interest rates.  Above all are positive indicators for the stock to go up but there is one negative aspect to this which can't be ignored 1. Credit growth of the banks will be under pressure as RBI is bringing strong guard rails to the unsecured loans, even though the impact is very less for HDFC Bank. 2. Below image on Open Interest suggests that there is strong resistance at 1500 and 1520, which is also an indication that the stock may not possibly go up. Verdict 1. We need to possibly wait for the RBI meeting outcome to come. 2. Need the ...